Will You Buy Jubiliant Foodworks?

November 25, 2011 | In: Mid Cap Stocks, Stocks Analysis

Jubiliant Foodworks is a very good company that has grown phenomenally well and will continue to do so in future. The company posted net profits of 33 crores in FY10 that jumped to 72 crores in FY11 and is expected to shoot up to 102.5 crores in FY12 and 150+ crores in FY13. The company is seeing strong same stores sales growth and it is also going to expand with time, thus such high growth of 100%, 40% and 50% respectively. The company is in a kind of business that will continue to grow in our country for several years to come. Now that we are convinced about growth prospects about this company, should one go ahead and buy this stock?

No! We are yet to take a look at the valuations of the stock. Jubiliant Foodworks is currently trading at a price of 764 rupees per share and the recent EPS posted by the company was 13.16 for Q2 FY12 which relates to a P/E of close to 58. Seriously? The share is actually trading THAT costly. Full year FY12 EPS is expected to be close to 16 and thats 6 month forward P/E comes to almost 48. Looking at FY 13 data, the stock is already trading above 30 PE for 1.5 year forward earnings. This kind of valuation is a strict no no for an investor. Although the company is showing a high growth trajectory, the stock price does not comfort an investor by any means.

An investor’s job is to buy a high growth stock at cheap valuations and if a high growing company is available at a very costly price then an investor should accept that the game is already over for the stock and move on to something else. Unless this stock comes down significantly, it would not trigger a buy for value investors as it provides no value to an investor at all. I’ve often explained the problems with high valued stocks, they trade high as long as there are no issues with earnings, any sign of issue with earnings anytime would trigger a sell on the stock. Then the stock might either crash or get stuck in a range for a long time to come as no fresh buyers will pay such a premium for this stock then and some would book profits. There are just enough evidence from the past to prove this theory right.

If an investor is looking to enter this scrip with a long term view, I think you should re think. There are a lot of other stocks giving good growth figures and are available at very cheap valuations which can make you much more money than what you could get in this scrip over a long term period ofcourse.

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  • Sam

    I’m looking to build my portfolio and have selected certain stocks such as

    Hcl tech, itc, ongc, sbi, yes bank, reliance broadcast, Godavari power, sterlite, India cements, ess dee, guj florochem, orchid chem, shree Ganesh jewlry, sintex, Tata mtors, maruti, hcl info

    I’m looking for Arnd 10 stocks amg these and if u wud recommend anything else……

    Looking forward for your reply …. Thanks

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    HCL Technologies – Good Pick, the company is in growth phase and trades at a discount to it’s peers like Infosys and TCS.

    ITC – Good company but valuations are not comforting at all. Your money could be safe here but you would not make enough money in this scrip due to already high valuations that ITC enjoys.

    ONGC – ONGC is good, it is available at a cheap valuation and ONGC is a great dividend payer! You could look at entering this scrip at current levels or on further dips.

    SBI – Not a fan of public sector banks and definitely not of SBI. SBI has NPA(non performing assets) of 34000 crores, above 4% gross NPAs. There was a slippage of 8000 crores in a single year. The company is in problems and it could simply escalate in coming quarters too. I’d give a pass to SBI and go for better private counter parts that are trading at low valuation and have great asset quality.

    Yes Bank – Fantastic pick! Yes Bank enjoys my top position in the entire banking industry due to having the best asset quality in the entire banking industry, coupled with very high growth and low valuations. Stock trades at 8x FY13 earnings today, cheap!

    Sterlite – Valuations reasonable but growth prospects lacking as the analysts suggests. I’d rather go for Tata Steel if its a question about metals space as a whole. Tata Steel is going to see significant improvement in its standalone numbers as its expansion completes at Jamshedpur, so use this current big correction in metals to enter that stock with a long term view.

    Godawari Power – Low value, decent growth pick. Keep low exposure but you can buy! Its a good stock.

    India Cements – Leave this one out of your portfolio. Looking at profit figures for last several years, it does not interest me a single bit. Cannot invest into a company that has no growth.

    Ess Dee – Do not like this one as well. Not a consistent growth company. Valuations low, but then a lot of stocks have low valuations coupled with good consistent growth. Leave this one too.

    Gujarat Fluorochemicals – Interesting pick there. The results have been absolutely phenomenal this year and I think this kind of growth might continue in coming quarters as well. Good Pick!

    Orchid Chemicals – Management retains it’s 25% growth guidance but due to FCCB concerns, this stock has crashed too. The issue is if markets go down further, people might unnecessary penalise it further. So be careful. In terms of valuations, if we believe the management, it is trading cheap, so one can accumulate but be cautious, might want to wait for markets to stabilise and then enter these scrips.

    Shree Ganesh Jewelry – Valuations are very cheap but the growth figures does not interest me yet. Sep 11 profits got halved and June was a meager growth.

    Sintex Industries – Good stock, unnecessarily hammered down due to FCCB issues but its FCCB redemption is 17 months later :/ Buy at current levels or further dips. Good pick.

    Tata Motors – Good stock, growth prospects good and valuations are very reasonable. You can invest here.

    Maruti – The stock has corrected to reasonable valuations due to its strike issues but those are temporary. You can safely invest here with a long term view.

    HCL Info – Nothing good about this one. Leave this out.

    If you are looking for 10 stocks out of these, I could suggest

    1. Yes Bank (Top Pick)
    2. ONGC
    3. HCL Technologies
    4. Sintex Industries
    5. Tata Motors
    6. Maruti
    7. Gujarat Fluorochemicals
    8. Godawari Power (Invest only small quantity here)
    9. Tata Steel (Alternative to Sterlite)
    10. Reliance Industries/Petronet LNG (A pick from an oil and gas space is good for your portfolio)

    If you have any more queries regarding any stocks, feel free to ask me anytime.

  • Sam

    Wt allocation interms of % do you recommend

  • Sam

    Other stocks Queries would include

    reliance broadcasting,icra/crisil,godrej,jyothy labs, niit tech, philips carbon, rain commodities, shopper stp, noida toll, action construction, tecpro systems, welspun India

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    I’ll give you a reply tomorrow morning as it would take some time to write and its late 11:30 here :P

  • Sam

    Haha !!! I’ve included many stocks ….. :p

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    It wouldn’t matter much as we’re talking about individual stocks. I’d give more weight to banking, then to auto. Low weight to small cap stocks.

    Like you could put 25% in private banking, 15% in auto, 5% for small cap stocks that you feel can be multibaggers like Godawari Power, Alok etc. 5-10% for stocks like Sintex, Guz Fluro. 

    It depends on you. Personally I’d cut short the list from 10 stocks to say 5 and go with those top 5. As the more you squeeze, the more the chances of better and better picks.

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Reliance Broadcast – Loss making company. Reject!!

    CRISIL – Interesting growth there, but valuations are rich, not comfortable for investors! Stock trades above 20 times FY13 EPS, so its a no no unless stock crashes a lot.

    Godrej? There are more than 1 Godrej companies, which one are you looking for?

    Jyothi Labs – The company is seeing degrowth this year and not a great outlook for next year as well and FY13 expectations are mixed amongst brokerages. Since FY12 is bad for them, you should stay out atleast till FY12 ends and then we can again take a call.

    NIIT Tech – Valuations are fine but lacks growth potential. So thats not acceptable for an investor. We need stocks with high growth and low value.

    Philips Carbon Black – The stock is trading at a ridiculous valuation or 2-3 PE and can see big upsides when market stops crashing. You could buy this one, at current levels or on further dips. But keep lower exposure as suggested in these small cap space as they are very volatile.

    Shopper Stop – All these retail stocks happen to trade at ridiculously high valuations and thus I see no value in these. What would happen when FDI would come and how company benefits, all those future hopes should not lure investors to invest today at 40 PE multiples :/

    Rain Commodities – Low valued stock and can post a decent upside from current levels but Im not too supportive of Cement business. It would be your call.

    Noida Toll Bridge – Nothing interesting there, flat growth over last 3 years.

    Action Construction – Good Pick, can see good upside, specially after this correction. Buy at current levels or on further dips, company is on the growth track.

    Tecpro Systems – Interesting choice, should see decent upside with time. It is trading close to 5 times FY13, thus good upside is possible.

    Welspun India – Reject!

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Well yeah :P But I’ve answered them too. Let me know if any more queries haha!

  • Harshit Singhal

    How about an article on Coal India?

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Sure, Ill take a look at Coal India and share my views soon.

  • Sam

    Thanks for your view… I would like you to relook rel broadcasting, cuz the debt is coming down and losses are trimming quarter on quarter, even enil( radio mirchi) had the same problem, they sold the OOH business to it’s holding company and now are in profits, even with this there was a demerger from rel media works which is loaded with debt…. It would b an interesting pick if they are able to turn around and make profits….

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Yeah, I did see that losses are coming down but stock is already having 446cr of Market cap which needs some bottom-line support, say at least 40cr of profit to say, stock is fair valued today considering it’s a small cap. We are far from that. Plus many good growing small caps or madcaps are very cheap valued, so it’s much better to go for them rather a company still battling to come out of profits…

  • Gaurav_diavolo

    Hi Mayank…would you take us through Delta Corp. The company made q3 pat of 15.4 cr and still the stock is going down! And an EPS of 0.1 is miniscule…whichcan easily give an idea that the stock can tumble any time. But there are way too many promises on growth from the company and experts. How do you look at this company?

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    I’m replying to you in a separate comment. Please check. This comment thing has become too thin now.

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    @ Gaurav –> Delta Corp stock might not tumble actually. There might be buying interest at lower levels from large investors like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. The results are good, but the company’svaluationsnot. If at all there is going to be high growth in a sustained manner, then it is already in the price. The stock is trading at a couple of years in the future’s fair valuation. This is the time to buy stocks that are currently available at fair value than the ones that are trading in the future value. If there are a lot of promises from the company and people believe it, you can see that it is IN the price already. It is too costly to even look at. Although this doesn’t mean the stock won’t rally. If the stock could goto 140 without and fundamental base, then anything can happen with these penny stocks. But does this mean I am going to play this risk? No.

  • gaurav_diavolo

    Thank you for your insight Mayank! Me and a few others are stuck in Delta corp at ridiculous levels of 100+, and that too in very big quantities. I track the company and its operations closely…however their work has never been exceptional and the dizzying heights of 140 came with one-time property sales…and since then, nothing worked for them. Their appointment of Citibank now to eye on JV’s with likes of MGM and others is again another attempt to woo high net worth investors. But who knows something hits the street and the stock joins VIPs and Jubiliant’s in an unexplained upmove. But yes, not a risk worth taking, maybe a meagre 2 to 3 percent of your total portfolio in my opinion, in the same of ‘betting’. 

  • Gaurav_diavolo

    * name of ‘betting’…..typo!

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Yeah. So look for an exit opportunity, or atleast lowering your total investments if stock rallies. If market rallies further, there is every possibility for traders to go crazy on this stock. That will be your time to lower your total investments here : ) Always stick to good fundamentals when wanting to put a lot of money. My personal experience suggests, buy a good private sector bank and you can trust it for your life time :P