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May 11, 2011 | In: IPO & FPO Analysis

The follow on offer (FPO) of Power Finance Corporation (PFC) has opened for subscription. I believe that one should go and apply for this FPO as PFC is very attractively priced at 203. I recommend PFC from a long term perspective as we do know that the whole power sector looks promising from a long term view and the companies financing them should also do good. Retail investors are also getting a 5% kind of discount on the issue price which comes down to 192. A price of 192 for PFC is really really attractive from a long term view.

From a valuation perspective, PFC posted an EPS of 22.82 in FY11 which relates to a P/E of 8.41 on a price of 192. If a retail investor is getting a piece of Power Finance Corporation at a current P/E multiple of 8.41, I think it could not have been better. PFC is not a small or tiny company, it is a very large company that has been unnecessarily hammered down due to various concerns and I don’t think those concerns mean anything in the long term as this whole sector is one of the most important ones for India to grow.

If we assume an EPS growth of even 13% or so, we can see FY12 EPS around 26 or so which relates to a one year forward P/E multiple of  7.5 or so. Valuations look really cheap and I can expect a re rating of the company in FY12. The stock should atleast hold a P/E of 10 in the long run if not more. So if nothing, PFC can go upto 260 in 12 months from now. Even for short term traders, this FPO is looking interesting as it can give you a 10% kind of profit after implementing that 5% discount to retail investors. It could be similar like Power Grid which was giving us an easy profit.

Subscribe to PFC FPO and hold the stock from a long term view.

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  • soni

    Hi Mayank,
    Please share you view on MCX IPO..
    I put a full application and looking to the subscription figure might get just about 6-9 shares :-(
    What is your suggestion? Book profit on listing or long term?
    Can you also suggest the possible listing price? I analyze it to get listed around 1400…
    Thanks,
    Soni.

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    MCX IPO is highly over subscribed. Retail portion is subscribed 16.6 times, so if one buys 100 shares, they’ll get 6 shares which makes it really less than what one could have hoped for. I wish these companies keep bigger portion for retail. Nevertheless, it is fairly priced at upper band being at 18 P/E. I wouldn’t say attractive or cheap as many are saying, but it is fair. MCX enjoys leadership in it’s business and so I won’t be surprised if it trades at higher value.

    Now if we’re looking at some kind of listing gain, say gives 20-30% listing gain, then for me it becomes costly. It will jump to 23-25 times P/E as per FY12 earnings. So then it no longer becomes a stock that is going to give me a lot of money by the time we hit next bull market. I would book profits and use this market dip to enter high quality stocks still trading at attractive valuations.

    But then again, no hurry to immediately exit, as it needs to be watched that what kind of value premium people are willing to give. You would know this on the day stock lists.

  • soni

    Thanks Mayank!

    As always your answer is right-on-the-spot,

    I had put my one full application at higher band but will hardly have 9/10 shares..
    I will wait for a week before booking profit..

    I request you to explain the new SEBI rule on “CIRCUIT FILTER IN 20% AND “T”GROUP ON LISTING DAY” on your blog..

    Cheers,

    Soni.

  • GC

    Hi Mayank,

    Can you share your views on Gayatri Projects. Should one apply for the rights issues

    Thanks

    Gaurav

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Have you booked your profits yet or holding for long term? Either ways is good. The most knee jerk reaction you get on listing day itself but its a good long term bet for people who bought IPO, definitely not if one wants to buy at current 1300 levels.

    Ill read on that SEBI rule and write a blog post on that soon.

    Mayank

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Isn’t the rights issue over already? Gayatri projects as an investment can be interesting because it is really cheap stock and I guess the most hammering of infra stocks is over and that makes this stock interestingly priced for an investment, although make smaller amount of investment.

  • soni

    Hi Mayank,

    No I am holding it for long term. Anyways I got just 8 shares and so there was hardly any profit to book..

    The news coming in favor of MCX.. Hopefully it will move upword soon..

    The problem is it is a kind of stock which do not have any other to compare with. The basic PE calculations doesn’t apply here…

    Certainly it want go to its IPO price again…

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Yeah, no comparison here and thats why I had a feeling that it might continue to trade at a higher valuation compared in general. So I would recommend IPO buying but not at current prices.