Markets Are Slowly Sinking

August 17, 2011 | In: Stock Market Analysis

Sensex and Nifty might be putting a different picture than what is the overall sentiments in the entire market. Yesterday sensex  fell by a hundred points and today they went up more than a hundred points which means in the last two days the markets have not fallen at all as the index suggests. This is a misleading picture actually as the broader markets have literally sunk in the last two days. If you look at the advance and declines ratio, you’ll notice that advances are way less than declines which simply tells you that markets are actually weak as we speak. If some buying is seen then it is around the index listed stocks only. Coal India and IT largecaps have gone up in the last two days which has held the markets from sinking to new lows.

Now Im not sure why the sentiments have gotten so weak all of a sudden, but my guess is it has to do something with the Protest movements going all over India. Investors have gotten nervous and wants to wait and watch the conditions in the country before going back or perhaps many feel that this protests might have a negative impact and they are waiting for lower levels to accumulate. After the two day good corrections in midcaps, I would look to accumulate stocks at current levels. Nifty might have stayed above 5000 but there are several stocks that inspite of giving good results have sunk to the levels which are justified if markets were well below 4800 as well. Some quality mid caps are available at 52 week lows or even lower than that, so I would be a buyer there if I feel the earnings visibility of the company is strong and it is available at a cheap valuation.

A while back my suggest was to keep some money on the sidelines and wait for 4800 levels to accumulate. I would suggest to start using a bit of money and buy on every decline in quality midcap stocks. Personally Im am slowly accumulating a few selected stocks on every decline as I feel in the long run, say 4-5 years I would never get a chance to pick these companies this low, ofcourse unless a financial crisis comes out. In short, I’d say, found a good quality stock at cheap valuation? Keep picking them at significant downsidess.

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  • Roshan

    Could you list some of these small and mid-caps you have been eyeing? I have personally been nibbling away at alok ind, yes bank, indusind, dena bank, srei, ester, spanco and reliance power from a two year perspective at least

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Alok – Good, getting at perfect valuations from a long term view.
    Yes Bank – Thumbs up, my top pick in private banking space.
    Indusind – Great company, best results but valuations a concern. If this stock was available at a cheaper valuation, I’d pick it up.
    Dena Bank – Very cheap, but public sector banks are just not good enough. Also in that PSU space, Dena Bank stands out as one of the top picks, although I’d go for a Private if I wanted to.
    Ester – Times up for poly companies. Poly prices have come down to normal and the entire year ester will post a degrowth and investors interest to remain low. If you want a poly related company, look at accumulating Uflex at lower levels.
    Spanco – Cheap valued, potential upside is there IT stocks are on a free fall as we speak, so avoid till the sector stabilises.
    Reliance Power – Will see more fall as market corrects due to still a valuation gap and no earnings still to support upper prices, will lag on upsides and will fall on downsides. So wait and watch the next 6 months before their first plant starts getting ready. There is still time before one can say yes Reliance Power could start going up. Although if you have 4-5 years view on Rpower, then it is a multibagger.

    Ill list you two of the small caps I like – Godawari Power and ACE.

  • Rajesh

    what are your views on REC,PFC, PTC

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    If you wish to enter the Power Finance companies, enter REC and not PFC, REC’s performance is way better than PFC. PTC India on the other hand can be a decent buy from a 24 month view. It can go upto 125-130 if you take a 24 months call.

  • Rajesh

    Please give your views on Polaris, Niit Tech as both are available at very good valuations, debt free,good d/y.

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Polaris – Expected to post low growth in FY12, but stock is undervalued.

    NIIT Tech – Very Undervalued if you look from 2 years view.

    Problem with both of them is the sector! With recession fears in US/Europe, it is difficult for software companies to perform. So I’d suggest a wait and watch approach. Let things stabilise and avoid this sector as a whole for now. In a recession software stocks crash like anything.

  • Rajesh

    Hi Mayank,
       Thnaks for your reply. Even at this young age your analysis is very good. You are giving your views without any vested interest. I am not sure about the so called experts & anchors of business channels. Whichever way the market goes they will always say I TOLD SO. Can you suggestone or two stocks for SIP for 5-7 years

  • http://www.mayankrocks.com Mayank

    Thanks. Quite a few analysts I’ve seen does not give good views. They change their stance every other day. Some will stick to what they said even if they got proved wrong horribly. And some give calls on stocks as they take stance. If they sold it and it turned out to go up, they’ll continue to say sell it :P

    5-7 years is a very long time. I can only be comfortable in saying Private Banking will grow in India. Pick Yes Bank(My top pick) or if you are comfortable with a larger one, go for Axis or ICICI. You can pick Petronet LNG on oil and gas sector, they are rapidly expanding and the gas story in India can grow. If you are comfortable with large one, then atleast in next few years Reliance will do good and you get a safety margin as its over sold currently. Or If you like Power Sector as we feel in next few years Power Sector will see some reforms coming up to improve the sector, Reliance Power is your bet for the next several years due to excessive expansion plans lined up.